Saturday, January 10, 2015

Don't "Pay Yourself First". Think Like an Owner and Pay Yourself Last.

Too many financial gurus are expounding on the virtues of "paying yourself first." The idea is that many people find themselves not saving enough (or any) from their paychecks after paying their monthly expenses, and that the solution is to "pay yourself first", by automatically deducting a portion of your paycheck toward your savings before using any of it to pay bills. Is that smart?

Absolutely not.

You must pay your debts first. If you prioritize savings and pay yourself first even at the expense of defaulting on your debts, your debt accounts will go into collection and it will eventually cost you a lot more money, most likely far more than you could earn from your savings. Plus, paying your debts is the honorable thing to do. You promised to pay when you first incurred the debt, and now you must live up to the promise.

Moreover, if you have credit card debt charging 17% interest rate, and you only make 5% on your savings, what good will paying yourself first do? Instead, pay the credit card company, as much as you possibly can in this example, and you will make the equivalent of a risk free 17% on your money.

Your income and expenses are not fixed month to month, but can fluctuate widely. For example, if you budget 50% of your income for fixed expenses and 30% for pleasure spend money, you might autopilot a pay yourself first program by automatically deducting 20% from your monthly paycheck. That in and of itself can serve as a disincentive to save more. After all, you have already saved money that month, and you even paid yourself first! Now what if your actual total expenses in a particular month drop to only 40%? You might decide that since you paid yourself first and then everyone else as well, whatever is left is free to spend away as you wish. That mentality just cost you a whopping 40% of your paycheck that month. On the flip side, unexpected expenses do pop up from time to time. By paying yourself first, you are effectively reducing your flexibility to meet these unexpected expenses, which may even cost you to go into debt and setting you back in your financial journey.

What should you do instead? 

Think like an owner. Take a look at any income statement, such as 3M's for example. Do businesses pay themselves first, by fixing a particular profit from revenue before any expenses are deducted? No honest business would do that. Instead, you see that from the top line, total revenue, the business would then deduct all sorts of expenses to include debt and taxes, before finally arriving at the bottom line, net profit. That's right, real owners pay themselves last. Everything that remains after you pay your creditors belongs to you. Your job is to maximize that bottom line.

Your task is to fix your expenses to as low as possible, so they don't rise with your income, or at least not nearly as much. By paying yourself first, you are essentially treating yourself as just another creditor among many. That mentality leads to enslaving yourself to whatever you end up splurging your residual income on. You owe it to yourself to pay yourself last.

Paying yourself first is forced savings. And by experience we know that no good ever comes by force. You must learn to save willingly. That is how pay yourself last works.

Track every penny you earn and spend each month and record them in a monthly income statement for yourself. Here are mine as an example. Each month, you don't know exactly how much you will end up in your bottom line, your savings. Instead, you try to maximize your top line, gross income, and minimize each line of expense. Each month is a new adventure for you. You compete with yourself each month to see if you can top your savings rate from the prior month. You will see how your savings grow month to month, then year to year, and how they will eventually outpace the growth in your expenses. 

Remember, debt is fixed, and the sky is the limit for equity. If you pay yourself first, you are but a debtor. If you pay yourself last, you are truly an owner.

Monday, January 5, 2015

My Net Worth Update - End of 2014

My net worth increased from $430,747.65 to $574,595.14 from 12/31/13 to 12/31/14. In 2014, my net cash inflow (from active income less expenses) was $104,165.19

Organic growth = ($574,595.14 - $104,165.19) / $430,747.65 -1 = 9.21%.

Inorganic growth = $104,165.19 / $430,747.65 = 24.18%.

Organic growth corresponds to growth in my net worth from interest and dividends (passive income) and capital appreciation without infusion of new money; inorganic growth corresponds to growth due to new money infusion.

Ideally, I would like to see increase in my net worth primarily from organic growth, to be sustainable in the event I no longer have earned income. At this rate, it will probably take me another 4-5 years before organic growth exceeds inorganic growth.

9.21% organic growth is a bit disappointing, which underperformed the S&P 500's total return of 13.69%. My 2014 returns are dragged down by a one-third allocation to international stocks, in a year where the EAFE returned -5% and Emerging Markets -2%. Instead of chasing return, I will continue to overweight international stocks, which offer much better value compared to US stocks right now. The valuation gap will close eventually, if not in 2015.

My liquid assets of $440,620.01 is currently 77% of my net worth, comprised of 5.8% cash, 4.0% bonds, and 90.2% stocks. My retirement accounts make up 26% of my net worth. My leverage is 106%, which is pretty conservative. I wouldn't sleep too soundly if it were much higher.

Saturday, January 3, 2015

Income & Expenses For December 2014

Since 2014, I have been tracking my monthly income and expenses. You can see a breakdown of every penny I earn and spend. For perspective, this budget is for a household of two in a small US city. By documenting my journey, I aim to demonstrate the feasibility of saving a significant portion of your income and provide some ideas and inspirations for your own budget.

Below is my income and expenses for December and all of 2014. You can see all my monthly budgets here.
Dec 2014Total 2014
Income
Wages$8,337.24$138,248.64
Dividends$1,390.67$9,843.75
Other Income$70.94$510.28
Amazon sale$59.73$331.94
Ebay sale$62.51$381.05
Total Income$9,921.09$149,315.66
Expense
Federal Tax$724.91$14,336.09
Federal Tax Pmt/(Refund)$1,134.78
FICA-SS$352.60$4,197.50
FICA-Medicare$82.46$981.64
Rent$450.00$7,261.99
Student loan repayment$157.49$1,919.37
Grocery$52.33$1,177.93
Gasoline$285.98
Car Insurance$596.03
Car Reg/Tax$273.97$585.94
Cell phone$134.55$806.04
Electric$40.59$460.23
Clothing/laundry$15.50$157.00
Donation$10.00$47.00
Amazon sale costs$11.62$117.93
Ebay fee$4.36$47.37
Everything else$409.90
Total Expense$2,310.38$34,522.72
Ex-Tax Total Expense$1,150.41$13,872.71
Surplus/(Deficit)$7,610.71$114,792.94
Before Tax Saving Rate76.71%76.88%
After Tax Saving Rate86.87%89.22%

Income
Dividend income on the high side this month, as most of my stocks pay dividends on the Mar/Jun/Sep/Dec cycle. Here is a chart of my dividend income by month in 2014:

December's dividends were enough to cover all my after tax expenses. If I could do this consistently, I would be able to quit my day job. That will probably be another few years away.

Expense
Expenses were slightly higher than usual this month, due to higher cell phone costs and car tax, partially offset by lower grocery expenditures. I incurred one time cost to buy a moto E when switching to a lower cell phone service provider, which I wrote about previously. This move will position me to spend only $17.92/month for 2 lines from now on.

Savings
My after tax saving rate was 87.87% for the month of December and 89.22% for the full year of 2014, which is pretty good. My monthly savings rate for 2014 is shown below. My goal is to save 90% of my after-tax income, which I came close to meeting. I will give that goal another shot in 2015.
 

How's your budget? Did you save as much as you wanted to? On track to meet your savings goals for the year? 
Thanks for reading.

Portfolio Update December 2014

Greetings friends. Another month and year has gone by. This is the first of my monthly and end-of-year portfolio update on this blog, and hopefully with many more updates to come. I will be relying primarily on dividends from this portfolio to cover my annual expenses when I retire. You can see my current portfolio holding below and here, and my monthly expenses here.

At the end of every month, I will update my portfolio and comment on any changes. I do that for accountability and also so you may glean some ideas on how I allocate my capital. You have the opportunity to learn from what I do well, so you can do the same, as well as what I do poorly, so you will not have to repeat my mistakes.

My Current Portfolio Holdings, as of December 31, 2014:
Ticker$ Current
Price
Shares
Held
Cost
Basis
$ Market
Value
%
Weight
%
Dividend
Yield TTM
VWO39.56578.8223,691.1022,898.125.25%2.86
BDX139.86146.2412,127.6820,453.134.69%1.61
EXC37.57516.5216,781.7319,405.664.45%3.34
STRA72.63202.007,886.0814,671.263.36%0
AFL61.08207.9710,427.6212,702.812.91%2.46
AZN70.4167.827,296.8111,814.532.71%3.98
AGNC22.32411.469,661.089,183.792.10%14.93
HPQ40.24219.254,064.908,822.622.02%1.56
LMT193.3144.564,713.568,613.891.97%2.85
XOM92.8382.297,323.817,638.981.75%2.92
MHFI88.6685.694,302.497,597.281.74%1.35
SAN8.42894.976,112.657,535.651.73%7.55
BRK.B149.1749.765,313.377,422.701.70%0
DV44.28167.073,695.597,397.861.69%0.74
NSC109.1562.224,738.056,791.311.56%2.03
BMTC30.73212.295,167.146,523.671.49%2.36
INTC36.36173.314,308.496,301.551.44%2.48
APOL33.26187.003,567.966,219.621.42%0
LO62.6499.005,998.416,201.361.42%3.91
RWEOY30.78196.007,794.926,032.881.38%3.25
PG90.4465.074,457.955,884.931.35%2.78
MOCO17.29330.044,864.795,706.391.31%2.46
VALE7.94644.228,001.215,115.111.17%1.62
OGZPY4.561,123.757,461.705,124.301.17%7.34
MAT30.47166.725,503.435,079.961.16%4.91
SON43.47113.854,063.314,949.061.13%2.91
VIG81.0260.373,618.584,891.181.12%1.95
WMT85.956.163,902.004,824.141.11%2.24
PEG41.9114.623,897.084,802.581.10%3.57
VEA37.69126.043,940.014,750.451.09%3.68
MSFT46.76100.133,409.434,682.081.07%2.48
CHL58.4978.033,715.794,563.971.05%3.11
PEP94.4447.273,607.654,464.181.02%2.68
UL39.98108.724,499.924,346.631.00%3.69
EMR61.7970.274,031.394,341.980.99%2.85
ESLT59.5970.542,576.124,203.480.96%2.07
CSX35.85107.762,255.423,863.200.88%1.74
TSCDY8.63442.004,875.263,814.460.87%6.28
MCD93.2639.083,749.733,644.600.83%3.5
BCR167.4820.432,034.223,421.620.78%0.52
JNJ104.5232.672,035.673,414.670.78%2.64
HIMX7.99421.221,069.903,365.550.77%3.35
LUKOY38.9587.874,346.053,422.540.78%7.3
YORW22.65143.622,822.133,252.990.75%2.49
K65.4849.732,814.723,256.320.75%2.9
GIS53.1160.992,662.213,239.180.74%3.02
SKM27.34110.611,453.423,024.080.69%3.71
RBCAA24.39117.142,464.632,857.040.65%2.98
DGS42.7965.872,983.252,818.580.65%3.17
WBA7633.431,243.262,540.680.58%1.71
VFC73.7633.112,150.162,442.190.56%1.48
CEO135.7717.942,711.452,435.710.56%4.88
RYAM22.54106.002,875.782,389.240.55%0.63
TESS28.383.761,009.312,370.410.54%2.76
BAMM1.681,396.154,928.412,345.530.54%0
ESI9.35245.001,901.202,290.750.52%0
PPL36.3662.871,925.082,285.950.52%4.1
RDS.A66.9833.732,151.302,259.240.52%5.56
BBL42.7252.852,665.232,257.750.52%5.63
DO37.2359.202,024.052,204.020.50%1.36
FNDE23.1793.852,416.642,174.500.50%1.37
BP38.1256.692,210.342,161.020.50%6.14
KO42.1450.612,099.812,132.710.49%2.89
BUD111.7418.912,050.032,113.000.48%2.9
SC20105.001,840.652,100.000.48%0.76
TOT51.1640.182,097.802,055.610.47%6.2
NKE95.0321.511,850.722,044.100.47%1.04
LLY70.0628.701,051.572,010.720.46%2.84
BVN9.67205.502,106.381,987.190.46%0.36
PDLI7.68250.151,508.401,921.150.44%7.78
TLSYY24.1372.991,087.551,761.250.40%5.23
PAYX46.2437.771,405.041,746.480.40%3.16
OIBR3.15519.302,518.611,635.800.37%0
TLK44.9136.141,162.621,623.050.37%3.08
HCBK10.13153.301,464.021,552.930.36%1.58
POT35.4943.491,265.561,543.460.35%3.96
PT1.051,416.002,421.361,486.800.34%12.86
SGTZY4.06371.002,392.951,506.260.35%3.97
SBRCY4.04346.002,138.281,397.840.32%7.96
PBR6.76201.382,064.151,361.330.31%0
EZPW11.66109.00997.351,270.940.29%0
HCN76.9516.561,025.561,274.290.29%4.2
BCMXY23.8252.00835.641,238.640.28%3.82
SB3.84312.942,253.171,201.690.28%5.63
MPC91.6412.96283.951,187.650.27%2.04
OGS41.9327.931,007.991,171.100.27%2.04
PTR110.410.301,085.721,137.120.26%4.22
CTL39.5927.061,053.451,071.310.25%5.46
FTD34.0630.00967.501,021.800.23%0
MBT7.17142.001,525.081,018.140.23%12.56
MDLZ36.7927.18481.90999.950.23%1.6
MRK57.1917.12590.13979.090.22%3.12
CIG4.94184.44959.09911.130.21%
OAOFY23.5438.001,086.42894.520.20%4.9
EONGY16.853.00916.90890.400.20%3.54
CIG.C5.17166.66923.30861.630.20%7.15
TLKGY23.9936.34711.90871.800.20%0
PKX63.7113.12888.62835.880.19%2.99
NAT10.2180.921,599.79826.190.19%6.06
MWE68.8912.08247.76832.190.19%5.21
OJSCY3.49236.001,109.20823.640.19%6.99
PEO23.7634.11900.85810.450.19%1.76
DTEGY15.7850.94637.26803.830.18%4.19
FSBK8100.29453.31802.320.18%1.26
MYTAY6.27124.001,634.32777.480.18%0
MRO28.627.04508.62773.340.18%2.83
GSH24.4531.59597.37772.380.18%2.32
CLD9.2682.00993.02759.320.17%0
DYN30.7224.00764.16737.280.17%0
T33.8721.63626.40732.610.17%5.48
IAG2.81250.00567.50702.500.16%0
SWRAY12.9753.32609.98691.560.16%3.3
IDCBY14.7345.00548.10662.850.15%4.89
EVEP21.0131.80695.78668.120.15%16.04
BACHY14.1845.00495.00638.100.15%4.75
AEO13.7445.30549.94622.420.14%3.6
NGLS49.212.28201.88604.180.14%6.45
ITYBY85.766.96429.01596.890.14%4.42
DRI58.4210.22460.92597.050.14%3.75
CICHY16.5336.00504.00595.080.14%5.03
KRFT62.649.50306.85595.080.14%3.43
CPLP7.9773.91628.97589.060.13%11.63
TPUB22.8226.00494.00593.320.14%0.76
CRC5.44106.00602.08576.640.13%0
VIAB75.47.50550.05565.500.13%1.71
PNW68.648.19354.38562.160.13%3.36
ISH14.8336.43787.62540.260.12%6.71
PNY39.4413.77501.78543.090.12%3.25
HNNMY8.261.56403.22504.790.12%2.67
NUS42.2412.00486.00506.880.12%3.16
ABEV5.9584.07505.26500.220.11%3.53
PM81.026.00493.50486.120.11%4.76
CACQ10.0448.00504.00481.920.11%0
HSBC47.0710.00490.50470.700.11%5.19
E34.9813.00518.44454.740.10%6.81
BFR13.4833.32369.85449.150.10%0
APA63.837.00473.90446.810.10%1.52
ICE217.642.03172.20441.810.10%1.19
CQP32.5812.76217.81415.720.10%5.31
TAXI9.9641.00499.79408.360.09%9.49
LGCY12.2127.98423.62341.640.08%21.04
OPTI0.55600.001,392.00330.000.08%0
IBM162.062.02362.61327.360.07%2.65
POM27.1412.02191.12326.220.07%4.01
LINC2.68119.131,589.19319.270.07%6.43
IEMG46.596.25316.44291.190.07%2.3
NTT25.6311.12248.42285.010.07%3.18
LC24.9310.00150.00249.300.06%0
LYG4.6550.00162.00232.500.05%0
ELNK4.4244.81366.99198.060.05%4.56
CEL8.423.13644.40194.290.04%2.77
TGT75.332.57149.75193.600.04%2.5
BND82.652.22177.00183.480.04%2.51
QCCO1.61113.87412.21183.330.04%0
PGN3.1755.00499.95174.350.04%4.51
BCS14.9211.00163.13164.120.04%2.37
KSS59.592.74149.80163.280.04%2.56
AMC25.635.56100.08142.500.03%2.29
WPG17.427.00123.13121.940.03%2.9
MVC10.0211.54104.09115.630.03%5.49
LPHI0.7130.10870.3791.070.02%30.02
ZA0.66118.00200.6077.880.02%0
BK40.461.0827.1943.700.01%1.63
HSY103.710.2625.0926.960.01%1.96
GOOGL529.550.0527.2426.480.01%0
BKS23.51.008.7023.500.01%0
ALN115.0031.6515.000.00%0
BPI11.081.0017.8511.080.00%0
BBEP7.631.4420.0010.990.00%28.58
NUOT0.3410.005.003.400.00%0
PGN3.170.411.331.300.00%4.51
375,877.09437,158.18100%3.15

As of December 31, 2014 my portfolio contains 171 stocks, valued at $437,209.81. This is an increase of $136,737.50, or 46% over my 2013 year end portfolio value. This was mostly due to my high savings rate of about 89% in 2014. My personal rate of return was only about 8.5% in 2014, underperforming the S&P 500 by about 5%, mainly due to my international stock concentration.

My transactions in December are listed as follows:
StockActionCostCost per shareImpact
PGNSell-2348.372.91-0.54%
VWOBuy1,112.2839.020.25%
SBRCYBuy1,082.835.500.25%
LUKOYBuy1,063.8437.990.24%
MBTBuy1,029.059.990.24%
OGZPYBuy1,002.074.700.23%
CEOBuy678.80135.760.16%
OJSCYBuy616.004.400.14%
CRCBuy602.405.680.14%
BBLBuy540.0045.000.12%
VALEBuy529.927.360.12%
CIGCBuy523.395.000.12%
EXCBuy521.5437.170.12%
BPBuy517.8938.030.12%
PBRBuy515.668.740.12%
TSCDYBuy504.008.000.12%
OIBRBuy502.090.370.11%
RYAMBuy501.6022.800.11%
OAOFYBuy501.0326.370.11%
PGNBuy500.503.250.11%
SGTZYBuy500.505.500.11%
PTBuy439.571.130.10%
AFLBuy279.2859.600.06%
XOMBuy254.9188.790.06%
PEGBuy241.2042.200.06%
BMTCBuy190.4529.100.04%
LMTBuy165.48192.730.04%
LCBuy15015.000.03%
NSCBuy135.73108.930.03%
SONBuy134.6944.290.03%
EMRBuy132.1162.810.03%
DGSBuy100.6844.330.02%
BDXBuy100.00138.610.02%
MOCOBuy100.0017.720.02%
PNYBuy100.0038.550.02%
YORWBuy100.0021.370.02%
All OthersBuy1,093.190.25%
Total14,714.313.37%

December was a busy month of investing for me, as I tried to get most of my idle cash invested, and many bargains presented themselves, amid the Russian and commodity stock sell-off.

Purchases
Most of the my purchases are in Russian and Brazil stocks where the valuation is too compelling to ignore. Russian stock market is trading at a CAPE of only 5, compared to 28 for the U.S.. Instead of paying 11 times earnings and 220% of book value for an energy company like ExxonMobil, you can pay only 2 times earnings and 29% of book value for the Russian energy giant Gazprom. Gazprom stock can go up 500% and still be cheaper than ExxonMobil. 

I can't time the bottom in oil and commodity prices or anything else, but at the current depressed prices there is more room on the upside than down. I will continue to average down as Russian and commodity stocks become cheaper.

LendingClub was a one-time opportunity to buy the stock at the IPO offer price of $15 per share as a user of LendingClub's website. I indicated for 350 shares (the maximum allowed for me), and got an allocation of 250 shares. The stock is rank speculation. LC is unprofitable despite tremendous growth, sells at 14x book value, compared to only 1-2x for most US banks with proven track record of profitability and dividends. LC popped 60% on the first trading day and has been range bound since. I sold 240 shares and kept 10 shares for fun. My current stake is small enough, so even if LC goes to zero I would be able to sleep soundly at night. Who knows, maybe LC will go on to become a 10-bagger and I will shoot myself in the leg for having sold and not bought more instead. I highly doubt it though.

Most of my domestic stock purchases are part of monthly direct stock purchase plan, currently $1250 monthly in 12 stocks.

"All Others" include dividends reinvested, which I elect for both my brokerage accounts and DSPPs to invest cash automatically.

Sales
I sold 807 shares of Paragon Offshore to harvest some losses to offset some of my short-term capital gains from the LendingClub sale. I still believe the stock is deeply undervalued due to a combination of lower oil prices and as an unloved spin-off. I plan to buy it back after 31 days, unless better opportunities are found elsewhere.

What do you think about my portfolio? How did your portfolio perform in 2014? Where do you see opportunity now? Thanks for reading.