2017 is half-way through. Here is an update on my progress on the five goals I set at the start of 2017.
1. Reach a net worth of $1,000,000.
Ahead of schedule. My current net worth is $999,181.64, which is only $818.36, or 0.08% short of target. I should reach $1M next month. For me to stay above the $1M mark at the end of 2017, I estimate the market can drop no more than 7% from the current level. A fall over more than 7% from the current level is unlikely. I would give this goal about 80% probability of success.
2. Receive $17,000 in dividends.
Behind schedule. My dividends received year-to-date is $7,532.56. That is only 44%, or less than half, the target. To meet the goal, my dividends for the second half of 2017 would have to be $9,467.44, representing 25% increase from the first half. That is a tall order. For comparison, last year the first half of 2016 I received 46% of the dividends for the year, which required about 17% increase from the second half. Though I might still meet this goal, I would rate it as unlikely at this point, probably 30% probability of success.
3. Save 90% of my after-tax income.
Ahead of schedule. Currently, my after-tax savings rate is 91% ytd. My income is likely to increase the remainder of the year, while expenses are expected to remain the same. I would give this goal about 95% probability of success.
4. Read 50 books.
Behind schedule. Excluding the Bible, I have read only 20 books so far, leaving 30 more to go. I was unsure how to account for reading the bible (i.e. count it as one, 66, or six??). At this pace, I would have to count the bible as 66 books to meet my goal for the year. Or I can start picking up the reading pace! My estimated probability of success (assuming conservative accounting of the bible as only 1 book) would be 20%.
5. Read the bible in one year.
On schedule. The app I am using to keep me on pace to read the bible in a year is doing a fantastic job. I have no trouble keeping it up only 10 minutes a day. I would give this goal about 95% probability of success.
Overall, I am on pace to meet 3 of my 5 goals. Currently, the probability of reaching all five goals is only a tad better than 4% (80%*30%*95%*20%*95%). To help reach all five goals, I need to spend extra effort on #4, which is mostly under my control. There is little I can do to help with goal #2. I can only invest however much I have and I would rather not assume greater risk by investing in high yield stocks.