2018 Mid-Year Review

2017 is half-way through. Here is an update on my progress on the five goals I set at the start of 2018.

1. Reach a net worth of $1,400,000.

On schedule. My current net worth is $1,307,542.08, which is $92,457.92, or 9.2% short of target. My annual surplus is roughly $130k, or $65k for half a year. I would need a mild boost from the stock market, perhaps another 3% return through the end of the year, to push me to the goal. I would give this goal about 50% probability of success.

2. Beat the S&P500TR.

On schedule. My YTD return is 3.51%, slightly ahead of the S&P500TR of 2.65%. Since my performance and the market performance are volatile, anything can change for the remainder of the year. I would give this goal about 50% probability of success.

3. Receive $18,000 in dividends.

On schedule. My dividends received year-to-date is $9,084.14, which is 50.47%, just slightly over half, the target. Barring something drastic like dividend cuts, I would rate this goal as more like than not to be met, probably 70% probability of success.

4. Save 90% of my after-tax income.

Ahead of schedule. Currently, my after-tax savings rate has been well above 90%, even exceeding 97% since I bought a home with cash. My income is likely to stay the same or increase slightly the remainder of the year, while expenses are expected to remain low. I would give this goal about 95% probability of success.

5. Read 60 books.

Achieved! I have read 68 books so far, and it is only at half time! I have devoted more time for reading this year, and it also helped that nearly two-thirds of the books I have read this year were audiobooks that I listened to on the go. That helps a lot. 100% probability of success here.

6. Read the bible in one year.

On schedule. I am using a daily bible reading app to keep me on pace to read the bible in a year, which is doing a fantastic job. I have no trouble keeping it up only 10-20 minutes a day. I would give this goal about 95% probability of success.

Overall, I have already met 1 and am on pace to meet 5 of my 6 goals. Currently, the probability of reaching all six goals is about 16% (50%*50%*70%*95%*100%*95%). Goals 1 and 2 are the most challenging but also the ones least under my control. Staying diversified and close to 100% stock allocation, buying on dips, and continuing to save diligently should give me a fair shot.