2019 Mid-Year Review: A Mixed Bag

2019 is half-way through. Here is an update on my progress on the five goals I set at the start of 2019.

1. Reach a net worth of $1,600,000.

Ahead of schedule. My current net worth is $1,592,651.10, which is only $7,348.90, or 0.46% short of target. My annual surplus is roughly $175k, or $87k for half a year. As long as the stock market does not drop more than 5% between now and the end of the year, I should reach this goal. I would give this goal about 90% probability of success.

2. Beat the S&P500TR.



Behind schedule. My YTD return is 16.75%, 167 basis points behind that of the S&P500TR of 18.43%. It is hard to make up that big a deficit with only half a year left. I would give this goal about 10% probability of success.

Action to take to get back on track: The markets are overvalued right now. Take any downturn as an opportunity to buy and hope for the best.

3. Receive $19,000 in dividends.

Behind schedule. My dividends received year-to-date is $8,334.20, which is 44% of the target. Even with dividend raises, this goal is highly unlikely to be met, probably 5% probability of success.

4. Save 95% of my after-tax income.

Ahead of schedule. Currently, my after-tax savings rate has been well above 95%, ranging from 97.11 to 99.43% the first half of the year. My income is likely to stay the same or increase slightly the remainder of the year, while expenses are expected to remain low. I would give this goal about 99% probability of success.

5. Read 50 books.

Ahead of schedule. I have read 32 books so far, which is 64% of goal at half time, so I have made good progress! Moreover, these are all real books I read, not audio books. I should be able to meet this goal by year-end no problemo. I figure 99% chance of success here.

6. Read the bible in one year.

On schedule. I am using a daily bible reading app to keep me on pace to read the bible in a year, which is doing a fantastic job. I have no trouble keeping it up only 10-20 minutes a day. I would give this goal about 99% probability of success.

Overall, I am on pace to meet 4 of my 6 goals. Currently, the probability of reaching all six goals is about 0.4% (90%*10%*5%*99%*99%*99%). Goals 2 and 3 are the most challenging, especially goal 2 which is least under my control. Staying diversified and close to 100% stock allocation, buying on dips, and continuing to save diligently should give me a fair shot. I am not too concerned about not meeting the dividend goal though, as I am currently at a tax bracket paying 15% tax on qualified dividends, a significant tax drag, and I have more than enough dividends to support all my spending needs.